पाकिस्तान के हालात और जलवायु परिवर्तन रहेगा UNGA के 77वें सत्र का केंद्रीय मुद्दा

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संयुक्त राष्ट्र महासभा के उच्च-स्तरीय 77वें सत्र के लिए एकत्र हुए दुनिया के शीर्ष नेताओं से संयुक्त राष्ट्र के मुखिया अंटोनियो गुतेरस ने साफ तौर पर अपील की है कि वह धरती का तापमान कम करने कि दिशा में फौरन कदम उठाएँ और इस धरती को डूबने से बचाएं। गुतेरस का यह बयान बाढ़ प्रभावित पाकिस्तान की यात्रा से लौटेने के बाद आया है और इस बयान ने साफ इशारा किया है कि पाकिस्तान के हालात और जलवायु परिवर्तन केंद्रीय मुद्दा रहेगा संयुक्त राष्ट्र महासभा के उच्च-स्तरीय 77वें सत्र का।

इससे पहले वर्ल्ड वेदर अट्रिब्यूशन (डबल्यूडबल्यूए) की एक जांच रिपोर्ट से पता चलता है कि पिछले महीने पाकिस्तान के बड़े हिस्से में आई बाढ़ ने जहां एक ओर हजारों लोगों को बेघर कर दिया, वहीं उस बाढ़ का कारण बनी 100 साल में अपनी तरह की पहली ऐसी बारिश की घटना ने लगभग 1,500 लोगों की जान भी ली।

डबल्यूडबल्यूए के इस विश्लेषण से ये भी पता चलता है कि इस भीषण बारिश के तार जलवायु परिवर्तन से भी जुड़े हुए हैं। डब्ल्यूडब्ल्यूए ने अपने निष्कर्षों पर पहुंचने के लिए सिंध और बलूचिस्तान, पाकिस्तान के सबसे बुरी तरह प्रभावित प्रांतों के लिए पांच दिनों की अवधि के लिए अधिकतम वर्षा और जून से सितंबर तक 60 दिनों के लिए अधिकतम वर्षा का विश्लेषण किया। एक बयान जारी करते हुए डब्ल्यूडब्ल्यूए ने कहा, “सबसे पहले, केवल अवलोकनों के रुझानों को देखते हुए, हमने पाया कि सिंध और बलूचिस्तान प्रांतों में 5 दिनों की अधिकतम वर्षा अब लगभग 75% अधिक तीव्र है, जो कि जलवायु 1.2 डिग्री सेल्सियस से गर्म नहीं होती, जबकि पूरे बेसिन में 60 दिनों की बारिश अब लगभग 50% अधिक तीव्र है, जिसका अर्थ है कि इतनी भारी बारिश अब होने की अधिक संभावना है।”

विश्लेषण में यह भी साफ किया गया है कि क्योंकि इलाके में बारिश कि मात्रा में काफी अंतर है इसलिए सीधे तौर पर यह कहना कि अकेले जलवायु परिवर्तन इसका कारण है, सही नहीं होगा।

डब्ल्यूडब्ल्यूए ने मानव-प्रेरित जलवायु परिवर्तन की भूमिका निर्धारित करने के लिए ग्रीनहाउस गैसों में मानव-प्रेरित वृद्धि के साथ और बिना जलवायु मॉडल के रुझानों को देखा। “वैज्ञानिकों ने पाया कि आधुनिक जलवायु मॉडल सिंधु नदी बेसिन में मानसूनी वर्षा का अनुकरण करने में पूरी तरह सक्षम नहीं हैं, क्योंकि यह क्षेत्र मानसून के पश्चिमी किनारे पर स्थित है और इसका वर्षा पैटर्न साल-दर-साल बेहद परिवर्तनशील है। नतीजतन, वे जलवायु परिवर्तन के प्रभाव को सटीक रूप से माप नहीं सके, जैसा कि चरम मौसम की घटनाओं, जैसे कि हीटवेव के अन्य अध्ययनों में संभव है। ”

संस्था की एक सदस्या, फ्रेडरिक ओटो सबूतों का हवाला देते हुए कहती हैं कि यह बताता है कि जलवायु परिवर्तन ने इस घटना में एक महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका निभाई, हालांकि विश्लेषण ने यह निर्धारित करने की अनुमति नहीं दी कि भूमिका कितनी बड़ी थी। ओटो ने कहा, “ऐसा इसलिए है क्योंकि यह एक वर्ष से दूसरे वर्ष में बहुत अलग मौसम वाला क्षेत्र है, जिससे देखे गए डेटा और जलवायु मॉडल में दीर्घकालिक परिवर्तन देखना मुश्किल हो जाता है। इसका मतलब है कि गणितीय अनिश्चितता बड़ी है। हालांकि, अनिश्चितता की सीमा के भीतर सभी परिणाम समान रूप से होने की संभावना नहीं है। हमने पाकिस्तान में जो देखा वह ठीक वैसा ही है जैसा कि जलवायु अनुमान वर्षों से भविष्यवाणी कर रहे हैं। यह ऐतिहासिक रिकॉर्ड के अनुरूप भी है, जिसमें दिखाया गया है कि भारी वर्षा में नाटकीय रूप से वृद्धि हुई है।”

अगस्त में पाकिस्तान में सामान्य से तीन गुना अधिक बारिश हुई, जिससे यह 1961 के बाद से सबसे अधिक बारिश की घटना बन गयी। सिंध और बलूचिस्तान में अगस्त में अब तक की सबसे अधिक बारिश हुई, जिसमें सामान्य मासिक वर्षा का सात और आठ गुना बारिश हुई। 25 अगस्त को, पाकिस्तान ने लगभग 30 बिलियन अमेरिकी डॉलर से अधिक के प्रारंभिक नुकसान का अनुमान लगाते हुए राष्ट्रीय आपातकाल की घोषणा की।

इस बाढ़ के बाद भारत और पाकिस्तान में अत्यधिक गर्मी के एक दौर का भी सामना किया। डब्ल्यूडब्ल्यूए ने मई में कहा था कि दोनों देशों में मार्च से अप्रैल के बीच की हीटवेव का दौर के होने की संभावना मानव-जनित जलवायु परिवर्तन के कारण लगभग 30 गुना अधिक थी।

डब्ल्यूडब्ल्यूए के इस तेजी से किए विश्लेषण के परिणामों से पता चला है कि भारत और पाकिस्तान में असामान्य रूप से लंबी और जल्दी शुरू होने वाली हीटवेव बहुत दुर्लभ है, और 100 वर्षों में केवल एक बार ऐसा कुछ होने की संभावना होती है। बीते मंगलवार को, संयुक्त राष्ट्र महासभा (यूएनजीए) के उद्घाटन के कुछ दिनों बाद, डब्ल्यूडब्ल्यूए ने यह बाढ़ विश्लेषण जारी किया था।

इसी क्रम में जलवायु परिवर्तन विशेषज्ञों ने गुरुवार को एक ब्रीफिंग में इस बात पर प्रकाश डाला कि वैश्विक मुद्रास्फीति में वृद्धि और जलवायु प्रभाव सबसे कमजोर देशों को कैसे प्रभावित कर रहे हैं। उन्होने यह भी कहा कि यूएनजीए से अत्यधिक जलवायु परिवर्तन की घटनाओं के प्रभावों के लिए नुकसान और क्षति या मुआवजे की क्षतिपूर्ति की तात्कालिकता को मुद्दा मानने की उम्मीद है।

ब्रीफिंग में बोलते हुए वर्ल्ड रिसोर्स इंस्टीट्यूट के निदेशक (जलवायु कार्यक्रम) उल्का केलकर ने कहा कि पाकिस्तान की भीषण बाद के बाद इस बार तो मानसून में पूर्वोत्तर भारत और बांग्लादेश की बाढ़ इस साल हुई शीर्ष जलवायु घटनाओं में जगह भी नहीं बना रही हैं। उन्होंने कहा, ‘पाकिस्तान में जो हुआ वह अब और नहीं देखा जा सकता। पाकिस्तान में हर सात में से एक व्यक्ति बेघर हो गया है। आप अब इस बात से इनकार नहीं कर सकते कि नुकसान और क्षति और अनुकूलन का मुद्दा किसी भी वैश्विक चर्चा का केंद्रीय होगा।”

केलकर ने कहा कि 2021 के संयुक्त राष्ट्र जलवायु परिवर्तन सम्मेलन (COP26) में इस मामले पर काफी निराशा हुई थी। “हमने पिछले साल सुना था कि विकसित देशों से वादा किए गए 100 बिलियन डॉलर की डिलीवरी में देरी होगी और यह यूक्रेन संकट से पहले था। अब डिलीवरी और भी दूर लगती है। विकासशील देश के दृष्टिकोण से, दो चीजें हैं- आज कठिन वित्त की तत्काल आवश्यकता है और हमें विकसित देशों से नुकसान और क्षति पर स्वीकृति और एकजुटता की आवश्यकता है।

इस चर्चा में यूरोपियन क्लाइमेट फाउंडेशन की सीईओ लौरेंस टुबियाना ने कहा कि यूएनजीए में देशों के बेहतर राष्ट्रीय लक्ष्यों पर नज़र रहेगी। वहीं टुफ्ट्स युनिवेर्सिटी मे फ्लेचर स्कूल की डीन रेचेल काइट ने उम्मीद जताई कि पाकिस्तान में जो हुआ उससे वैश्विक समुदाय नज़र नहीं चुरा सकता और उसे चर्चा का केंद्र बनाना पड़ेगा। ग्लोबल सिटीजेन कि वाइस प्रेसिडेंट फ़्रेडरिक रोडर ने अमीर देशों की इस स्थिति में भूमिका पर चर्चा करते हुए अपेक्षा व्यक्त की कि उन्हें आगे आ कर गरीब देशों की मदद करनी चाहिए।

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