अल नीनो की वापसी बिगाड़ेगी मानसून 2023 के हाल, हालात बिगाड़ेगा जलवायु परिवर्तन

1977
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भूमध्यरेखीय प्रशांत महासागर क्षेत्र के सतह पर निम्न हवा का दबाव होने पर जो स्थिति पैदा होती है, उसे ला नीना कहते हैं। इसकी उत्पत्ति के अलग-अलग कारण माने जाते हैं लेकिन सबसे प्रचलित कारण ये तब पैदा होता है, जब ट्रेड विंड, पूर्व से बहने वाली हवा काफी तेज गति से बहती हैं। इससे समुद्री सतह का तापमान काफी कम हो जाता है। इसका सीधा असर दुनियाभर के तापमान पर होता है और तापमान औसत से अधिक ठंडा हो जाता है। फिलहाल ला नीना प्रभाव विदाई की ओर है। पैसिफिक की सागरों के सर्द तापमानों में अनियमितताओं के साथ इनका असर अब खात्‍मे की तरफ है। नैशनल ओशेनिक एंड एटमोसफेरिक एड्मिनिसट्रेशन (एनओएए) के ताजा पूर्वानुमानों की मानें तो 21वीं सदी में ला नीना में हुई पहली तिहरी पुनरावृत्ति इस साल होगी, और यह अब तक का सबसे लम्‍बा चलने वाला दौर भी है।

उत्‍तरी गोलार्द्ध में ला नीना का प्रभाव लगातार तीसरी बार पड़ना एक दुर्लभ घटना है और इसे ‘ट्रिपल डिप’ ला नीना के तौर पर जाना जाता है। आंकड़ों के मुताबिक लगातार तीन बार ला नीना का प्रभाव वर्ष 1950 से अब तक सिर्फ दो ही बार पड़ा है। ऐसा वर्ष 1973-1976 और 1998-2001 के बीच हुआ था। एनओएए के मुताबिक ला नीना प्रभाव की सबसे लम्‍बी अवधि 37 महीनों की थी और यह वर्ष 1973 के वसंत से 1976 के वसंत तक रही थी। उसके बाद वर्ष 1998-2001 के बीच इसका प्रभाव 24 महीनों से ज्‍यादा वक्‍त तक रहा था।

मगर सबसे ज्‍यादा फिक्र की बात यह है कि अल नीनो जैसे खतरनाक प्रभाव की वापसी हो रही है। जलवायु परिवर्तन से जुड़े मॉडल्‍स के अनुमानों के मुताबिक अल नीनो का प्रभाव मई-जुलाई के दौरान लौटने की सम्‍भावना है। यह अवधि गर्मी और मानसून के मौसम को आपस में जोड़ती है। मानसून की अवधि जून से सितंबर के बीच मानी जाती है।

मेरीलैंड यूनीवर्सिटी में एमेरिटस प्रोफेसर और आईआईटीबी में अर्थ सिस्‍टम साइंटिस्‍ट रघु मुरतुगुड्डे ने कहा “ला नीना के दौरान उष्‍णकटिबंधीय प्रशांत द्वारा गर्मी को एक सोख्‍ते की तरह सोख लिया जाता और पानी का तापमान बढ़ता है। यही गर्म पानी अल नीनो प्रभाव के दौरान पश्चिमी प्रशांत से पूर्वी प्रशांत तक प्रवाहित होता है। ला नीना के लगातार तीन दौर गुजरने का मतलब यह है कि गर्म पानी की मात्रा चरम पर है और इस बात की पूरी सम्‍भावना है कि प्रणाली एक अल नीनो प्रभाव को जन्‍म देने के लिये तैयार है। क्‍या यह वैसा ही ताकतवर अल नीनो प्रभाव होगा, जैसा कि 2015-16 के बीच था? हम वसंत के मौसम से ही इसके कुछ संकेत महसूस कर सकते हैं।’’

ऐतिहासिक मानकों के अनुसार, एक पूर्ण अल नीनो या ला नीना प्रकरण के रूप में वर्गीकृत होने के लिए, इन सीमाओं को कम से कम पांच लगातार अतिव्यापी तीन महीने की अवधि के लिए पार किया जाना चाहिए।

अल नीनो और दक्षिण-पश्चिमी मानसून के बीच सम्‍बन्‍ध

अल नीनो निरपवाद रूप से खराब मानसून से जुड़ा होता है और इसे एक खतरे के तौर पर देखा जाता है। आंकड़ों के मुताबिक अल नीनो वर्ष होने पर देश में सूखा पड़ने की आंशका करीब 60 प्रतिशत होती है। इस दौरान सामान्‍य से कम बारिश होने की 30 प्रतिशत सम्‍भावना रहती है, जबकि सामान्‍य वर्षा की मात्र 10 फीसद सम्‍भावनाएं ही बाकी रहती हैं।

डॉक्‍टर मूर्तुगुड्डे ने कहा “जहां तक मानसून का सवाल है तो अगर गर्मी के मौसम में अल नीनो प्रभाव पड़ता है तो वर्षा में कमी आने की सम्‍भावना ज्‍यादा बढ़ जाती है। ला नीना सर्दी (हम अभी जो महसूस कर रहे हैं) से ग्रीष्मकालीन एल नीनो स्थिति में रूपांतरण होने से मानसून में सबसे बड़ी कमी (15%) का खतरा होता है। इसका मतलब यह है कि प्री-मानसून और मानसून परिसंचरण कमजोर हो जाते हैं।”

अल नीनो प्रभाव का कोई निश्चित नियम कायदा नहीं होता जिससे यह पता लगे कि उसका व्यवहार कैसा होगा और वह कैसे आगे बढ़ेगा। मिसाल के तौर पर वर्ष 1997 में सबसे ताकतवर अलनीनो प्रभाव होने के बावजूद मानसून में 102% वर्षा हुई थी। वहीं वर्ष 2004 में अलनीनो का प्रभाव कमजोर होने के बावजूद गंभीर सूखा पड़ा था और देश का लगभग 86% हिस्सा इसकी चपेट में आया था।

वर्ष 2009 से 2019 के बीच के आंकड़ों को देखें तो ऐसे चार मौके मिलते हैं जब सूखा पड़ा था। वर्ष 2002 में भारत में बारिश की मात्रा में 19% और 2009 में 22% की गिरावट हुई थी। इन दोनों वर्षो को गंभीर सूखे वाले सालों के तौर पर जाना जाता है। इसी तरह वर्ष 2004 और 2015 में भी वर्षा में 14-14 फीसद की गिरावट आई थी और यह दोनों साल भी सूखे के गवाह बने थे। पिछले 25 वर्षों में सिर्फ एक ही ऐसा मौका (1997) गुजरा है जब अलनीनो के प्रभाव के बावजूद देश में 2% अतिरिक्त यानी कुल 102% बारिश हुई थी।

स्काईमेटवेदर के मौसम विज्ञान एवं जलवायु परिवर्तन विभाग के अध्यक्ष जी पी शर्मा ने कहा “अल नीनो प्रभाव का पूर्वानुमान अगले नौ महीनों के लिए उपलब्ध है। हालांकि इस समय चार महीने से अधिक के समय के लिए मॉडल की सटीकता आमतौर पर कम होती है फिर भी इस समय के आसपास संकेत किए गए अलनीनो का पिछला रिकॉर्ड खराब दक्षिण पश्चिमी मानसून का एक सुबूत है। दिसंबर 2013 और दिसंबर 2017 के ईएनएसओ के पूर्वानुमान दिसंबर 2022 की तरह ही थे। इन दोनों वर्षों में दक्षिण-पश्चिमी मानसूनी वर्षा देखी गई थी जिसकी वजह से 2014 में मध्यम सूखा और 2018 में पूर्ण सूखा पड़ा था। इससे पहले वर्ष 2003 और 2008 में भी अलनीनो प्रभाव की तर्ज इसी तरह बहुत खराब साबित हुई थी, जिसकी वजह से 2004 और 2009 में भारत में मानसून पर बहुत बुरा असर पड़ा था और यह दोनों ही साल सूखे के गवाह बने थे। शुरुआती अनुमानों से संकेत मिलता है कि ईएनएसओ तेजी से बढ़ रहा है और अल नीनो प्रभाव भी मानसून के समय तेजी से बढ़ता है। अभी तक नीनो 3.4 रूपी प्रमुख संकेतक अपनी जगह कायम हैं और नकारात्मक विसंगतियां अब भी बनी हुई हैं।

अलनीनो वर्ष में मानसून के रक्षक साबित हो सकते हैं एमजेओ और आईओडी

अलनीनो के निराशाजनक परिदृश्य के बीच समुद्री पैमाने एमजेओ (मैडेन-जूलियन-ऑसीलेशन) और आईओडी (हिंद महासागर डिपोल) दक्षिण-पश्चिमी मानसून के कवच के दो रक्षक हैं। यह दोनों मौसमी परिघटनाएं अगर सकारात्मक हैं तो वे पूरे देश में अच्छे मॉनसून का संकेत देती हैं और अल नीनो के प्रभाव को काफी हद तक कम कर देती हैं। हालांकि यह अभी स्पष्ट नहीं है कि क्या यह एक मजबूत संबंध है। यह भी साफ नहीं है कि इस वर्ष आईओडी विकसित होगा या नहीं।

एमजीओ एक क्षणिक चीज है जो चार महीने तक चलने वाले मानसून के मौसम में कम से कम एक बार और ज्यादा से ज्यादा 4 बार हिंद महासागर में गश्त करती है। इस बीच आईओबी जिसे भारतीय नीनो के रूप में भी जाना जाता है, वह एसएसटी समुद्र की सतह के तापमान का एक अनियमित दोलन है। इसमें पश्चिमी हिंद महासागर अपेक्षाकृत गर्म हो जाता है और पूर्वी हिस्से को ठंडा बना देता है। यह भारतीय उपमहाद्वीप पर मानसून की ताकत को भी प्रभावित करता है। एक सकारात्मक चरण पश्चिमी हिंद महासागर क्षेत्र में औसत एसएसटी से अधिक और पूर्वी हिंद महासागर में पानी के इसी तरह के ठंडा होने के साथ अधिक वर्षा का कारण बनता है। दूसरी और नकारात्मक आईओडी से विपरीत परिस्थितियां पैदा होती हैं।

ग्लोबल वार्मिंग और अलनीनो के बीच द्विमार्गी संबंध

हाल के शोध से यह पता चलता है कि चरम अल नीनो घटनाओं की आवृत्ति वैश्विक माध्य तापमान के साथ रेखीय तरीके से बढ़ती है। ऐसे में वैश्विक तापमान में 10 डिग्री सेल्सियस की वृद्धि होने के परिदृश्य में इस तरह की घटनाओं की संख्या दोगुनी (हर 10 साल में ऐसी एक घटना) हो सकती है। यह सिलसिला वैश्विक तापमान में वृद्धि को डेढ़ डिग्री सेल्सियस पर स्थिर किए जाने के बाद एक शताब्दी तक जारी रहने की संभावना है। इसकी वजह से अनुकूलन की सीमा को चुनौती मिलती है और इस तरह डेढ़ डिग्री सेल्सियस की सीमा पर भी बड़े जोखिम के संकेत मिलते हैं।

अल नीनो के दौरान और उसके बाद भी वैश्विक औसत सतह का तापमान बढ़ता है, क्योंकि महासागर वातावरण में गर्मी को स्थानांतरित करते हैं। अलनीनो के दौरान पानी के गर्म होने से बादल की तहें समाप्त हो जाती हैं और सौर विकिरण की वजह से समुद्र की सतह अधिक गर्म हो जाती है।

डॉक्टर मूर्तुगुड्डे ने कहा “अल नीनो के दौरान हमें मिनी ग्लोबल वार्मिंग की स्थितियां मिलती हैं, क्योंकि उष्णकटिबंधीय प्रशांत क्षेत्र में फैले गर्म पानी से वातावरण में भारी मात्रा में गर्मी निकलती है। अखबारों की सुर्खियां पहले ही गवाही दे रही है कि इस साल अल नीनो ग्लोबल वार्मिंग को डेढ़ डिग्री सेल्सियस के स्तर से आगे बढ़ा सकता है। दुर्भाग्य से यह साफ नहीं है कि क्या वह अस्थाई विचलन उन चरम सीमाओं से परे नाटकीय रूप से कुछ भी पैदा करेगा जो हम पहले से ही महसूस कर रहे हैं। अलनीनो निश्चित रूप से चक्रवात व मानसून, जंगल की आग, धूल भरी आंधियों तथा ऐसे ही अन्य घटनाओं के लिए अपनी सामान्य वैश्विक परेशानियां लेकर आएगा।

अनेक शोधकर्ताओं ने पहले ही चेतावनी जारी की है। उन्होंने ग्रीन हाउस गैसों के उत्सर्जन के चरम हालात के तहत चरम अल नीनो और ला नीना परिघटनाओं की आवृत्ति के हर 20 साल में एक बार से बढ़कर 21वीं सदी के अंत तक ऐसा हर 10 साल में एक बार होने की आशंका जताई है।

गर्म जलवायु में अल नीनो की घटनाओं के दौरान प्रशांत महासागर में भूमध्य रेखा के साथ पूर्व की तरफ तथा ला नीना की चरम घटनाओं के दौरान पश्चिम की तरफ बारिश की चरम सीमा का अनुमान लगाया जाता है। मध्य अक्षांश में वर्षा के पैटर्न के संभावित विकास को लेकर स्थिति कम साफ है लेकिन अगर अल नीनो और ला नीना की आवृत्ति और आयाम में बढ़ोत्तरी हुई तो चरम सीमा ज्यादा स्पष्ट हो सकती है।

Climate कहानी

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  264. ¿Qué es un juego de tragaperras en línea?

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    ven la luz de la World Wide Web casi a diario, las salas de juego en Internet amplían su oferta y
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    Este es un tema muy extenso para los jugadores que aún no han tenido la oportunidad de adquirir experiencia en casinos en línea.

    Un bono de nuevo cliente por un primer depósito, tiradas
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    ¡El crédito del bono se separa inicialmente de la cuenta normal de dinero real!
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    deben cumplirse unas condiciones. Éstas varían en función de la casa de juego en línea.
    Así que preste atención…

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